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Is Your Polygenic Risk Score a Good Thing?

Back in October, Jon Holmlund wrote a blog entry regarding the popular company 23andMe and their collection of your health-related information along with your genetic material. I missed the significance of that relationship at the time. It took a recent article in Technology Review by my favorite technology writer Antonio Regalado to raise my ethical antennae. In his article, he explains the nexus of big data mining of genetic data and health information (such as is collected by 23andMe) and its future potential use to select embryos for IVF, selecting not only against polygenic diseases such as type 1 diabetes but potentially for non-diseases such as height, weight or even IQ.


Pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) already is used to select for particular embryos for IVF implantation that do not have genetic patterns such as cystic fibrosis or Down syndrome. Diseases that result from multiple genes (polygenic disorders) presently defy current PGD methods used to detect future diseases. Using Big Data analysis of health information compared against linked genetic data, scientists are getting better at accurate polygenic risk scores, statistical models which may more accurately ‘guess’ at an embryo’s future risk for not only juvenile diabetes but also later-in-life diseases (such as heart disease, ALS or glaucoma) or other less threatening inheritable traits (such as eye color, height or IQ) that result from multiple genes (and perhaps even environmental factors). There is confidence (hubris?) that with enough data and enough computing power, we can indeed accurately predict an embryo’s future health status and all of his or her inheritable traits. Combine that further with all of the marketing data available from Madison Avenue, and we can predict what type and color of car that embryo will buy when he or she is 35.

Ok, maybe not the color…

Seriously, companies such as Genomic Prediction would like to see IVF clinics eventually use their expanded statistical models to assist in PGD, using a proprietary technique they are calling Expanded Pre-implantation Genomic Testing (EPGT). Consider the following two quotes from Regalado’s article:

I remind my partners, “You know, if my parents had this test, I wouldn’t be here,” says [founding Genomic Prediction partner and type 1 diabetic Nathan] Treff, a prize-winning expert on diagnostic technology who is the author of more than 90 scientific papers.

For adults, risk scores [such as calculated by 23andMe] are little more than a novelty or a source of health advice they can ignore. But if the same information is generated about an embryo, it could lead to existential consequences: who will be born, and who stays in a laboratory freezer.

Regalado’s last comment is dead-on – literally. Who will be born and who stays in the freezer is another way of saying “who lives and who dies”.

Technologies such as EPGT are poised to take us further down the bioethical slope of choosing which of our children we want to live and which we choose to die. For the sake of driving this point home, let’s assume that the technology becomes essentially 100% accurate with regard to polygenic risk scoring and we can indeed determine which embryo will have any disease or trait. Since we already permit the use of single gene PGD to prevent certain genetic outcomes, should there be any limit to polygenic PGD? For instance:

(A) Should this technology be used to select against immediate life threatening illnesses only or also against immediate mentally or physically permanently crippling diseases that don’t cause death directly?

(B) Should this technology be used to select against later-in-life diseases that are life threatening at the time or also against mentally or physically crippling diseases that don’t cause death directly? (Would it make a difference if the disease occurred as a child, teenager or adult?)

(C) Should this technology be used to select against non-disease inheritable traits that society finds disadvantageous (use your imagination here)?

(D) Should this technology be used to select for inheritable traits that society finds advantageous (a slightly different question)?

Depending upon your worldview, until recently, answering Questions A through D used to be the purview of God or the random result of chance. Are we ready (and capable) to assume that responsibility? Make your decision as to where you would draw the line then review this short list of famous scientists and see how many on that short list your criteria would permit to be born.

Are you happy with that result? Would you call it good?

It would be nice to get this right since it now appears to be our call to make…

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